Polls Open in Holland as Polls Suggest Possible Repeat Victory for Geert Wilders

Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.